July 15, 2019: Mark's Market Talk

July 15, 2019


The only unknown coming into last Thursday’s S&D report was whether they would lower yields. NASS had just released their planted acreage report 2 weeks earlier so the USDA was tied to using their acres even though no one agrees with them. They took the easy way out on the corn yield and left it alone. They had dropped it 10 bushels in June and everyone thinks it needs lowered more but did not expect them to at this time. NASS is resurveying farmers to find out what really got planted this spring and that will be released in the August report. By then producers should be finished certifying their planted acres and that total can be compared to the resurvey results. This August report will be highly anticipated and will likely be very volatile. The spate of hot and dry weather we are in the middle of is not helping yield potential as we need some moisture sooner than later. Back to last week’s report, it appears the trade thinks they know more than the government. The report was bearish to corn but corn staged a rally that started about noon Thursday and it continued into Friday’s trade. At the end of the week December corn had gained 17 cents. Basis levels stayed very firm and Iowa saw a lot of option or better bids. Farmers continue to be slow sellers as they don’t want to miss the high. Weather will be the dominate topic this week. Interior demand is currently very strong but end user margins are starting to suffer. This could quickly impact the basis if some of the buyers back out of the market. The USDA did lower bean yields a bushel in this report so that is a step in the right direction. The argument can be made they need to lower the bean yield another 3 or 4 bushels due to the amount of late planting. At the end of the week Nov beans were 37 cents higher so several some bodies are thinking that the lowering of the projected bean yield a bushel down to 48.5 is a step in the right direction. The time between now and the end of harvest should supply more drama than we have seen for years. Early frost is not a friendly thought for producers this year.         
 
Posted: 7/15/2019 9:14:52 AM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments