August 12, 2019: Mark's Market Talk

August 12, 2019


Grains ended last week higher as dry weather became more of a concern late in the week. December corn was up almost 8 cents and November beans ended the week up 24 cents. This week’s supply and demand report will be a mover. The USDA has resurveyed producers to correct the June report. As is normal with the government we have waited 6 extra weeks for this information which means we have been trading on false information ever since the June report was released. This could be a market that looks for direction even after Monday’s report. The domestic demand is strong and has produced positive basis in most areas. Farmers holding old crop corn have been stingy about letting much corn loose. This will continue in the areas that have major crop issues, especially to the east. The corn export market has been very slow as Argentina still has cheaper stocks available. We should start seeing some of that demand come back our way this fall once our harvest gets underway. World corn stocks have been more than amble for several years. As this surplus comes down we will see more immediate  demand as importing countries may suddenly become  progressive buyers instead of just hand to mouth like they have been recently. The bean market saw some weather premium added in last week as dry conditions moved into more areas. A large percentage of this crop is late planted and is just starting the reproductive stage. August rains will be more important than normal this year. If beans slow down waiting for moisture this year it may put them at risk of an early frost. It may be too soon to mention frost but with the lateness of this crop an early frost would really top off a year of wild and unpredictable weather. Once we get through this week’s S&D report we will start talking marketing ideas heading into harvest. The industry has a record low amount of new crop grain bought at this time. This could easily add to the volatility as we head into harvest.  
 
Posted: 8/12/2019 8:33:51 AM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments


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