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Mark's Market Talk

July 27, 2020

We saw a mixed week in the grain markets last week as corn worked lower while beans appreciated just a bit. Locally old corn lost 7 cents while new crop corn was worth a nickel less on Friday. Friendly weather forecasts along with a low export number kept corn on the defensive all week. The week before China made their 2nd largest corn purchase of all time and then they sat on the sidelines all last week. The weather models are showing temperatures moderating this week after another hot weekend. There is also a better chance of rain appearing as we head toward the first of August. Right now, the biggest threat most of us face is deer damage in our corn fields. One more rain will not finish the corn, but it won’t take a lot more for most of it to be headed toward harvest. Those with old corn sitting around will have to decide in the very near future what to do to make room for this crop. Most years if you have space you can hold the leftover bushels, catch the carry, and put some extra money in your pocket. This is not one of these years as the current carry to January is a scant 13 cents. That does not pay much interest. As hard as it is to do, the best thing may be to jump ship and get the bins cleaned out for what looks to be a great crop. Instead of worrying you might miss a rally on the old crop, be prepared to price new crop if that happens.

Beans had a better week as old beans were 2 cents higher and new crop beans worked up 7 cents for the week. China continues to be a buyer as Brazil is about out of beans. Tensions between our 2 countries are heating up again as both leaders are strong minded people. Owning old beans right now is like a dice game where  there might be a different winner with each roll. Unless you have deep pockets and lots of storage available, the same advice as old corn may hold true. Beans have traded in the same 30 cent trading range for quite a while. Mid to late August weather makes the bean crop so we are 30 days out. Should the late season weather stay friendly you would be glad you sold the old beans. If the weather shifts and new crop rallies, you start selling them. Owning 2 crops at the same time rarely pays.      
Posted: 7/27/2020 2:24:59 PM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments

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