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Mark's Market Talk

May 18, 2020

A lot happened last week that could have moved the markets big time but by the end of the week July corn was steady while July beans were down 13 cents. Tuesday was report day as the USDA released the May stocks and demand report. The corn number everyone was watching was the ending stocks which came in 102 million bushels below the average guess. Most may argue they were optimistic on the usage side as they tried to show how we were going to deal with a 16-billion-bushel crop. A lot can and will happen in the coming year and it’s easy to be negative right now as it seems everything is working against us. Short answer is if the country is going to raise a huge crop, we better hope we get our share. Timely planting and some needed rain last week have us on the right track. We need to keep our eyes open for some selling opportunities in the next month as this has been the timeframe for some of the better corn sales the past 4 years. After the first of July we will need to have some hot and very dry weather to start a rally. Corn closed a little higher Tuesday which leads you to believe this large crop has been priced into the market. We saw similar numbers on the bean side of the report. The projected carryout was pegged at 405 million bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 440. However, the trade did not agree with something as beans closed 12 lower Tuesday. With the amount of buying we are seeing from China and other countries it could be that the bean market is sleeping. However barring weather issues, we may not see a lot of movement until we see the June planting numbers. Everyone has a different story on what ended up getting planted. The early planting weather favored corn, but it appeared some reverted back to beans on intended corn acres. If the acres stay at 96 million for corn and 83 to 84 on beans, the price advantage could go to the beans. One last thought. I have mentioned the old saying “the oat knows” before in this article. Oats have been on a rally lately and for a while last week traded the same price as corn. This does not happen very often. This begs the question, does the oat market know something the rest of us are missing? Let’s hope so.  
Posted: 5/18/2020 1:20:08 PM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments

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