November 25, 2019: Mark's Market Talk

November 25, 2019
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Here we are entering the last week of November and harvest isn’t over. As a matter of fact, in some areas there is still a lot of acres to go. Thanksgiving is about as late as it can be this year and that will help some accomplish their goal of being done by then. The late harvest has not had a positive effect on prices to this point. The trade seems content to sit back and wait for the bushels to get to town. The past week brought more reports of substandard grain as several areas were harvesting late planted corn and saw low test weights and high FM. In a normal year this doesn’t amount to much and doesn’t make the news. This year is different. These areas are wide spread and include some prime grain production areas. The debate has already started about how the USDA will deal with this information in their January reports. There’s no argument that this will impact supply. A 50-pound test weight compared to 56 gives you 11 percent less corn. When you add in the extra FM you get from low weight corn you have storage issues and reduced interest from buyers. Average test weights this year have been lower than normal even where yields have been good. A drop of 2 pounds will mean 3.5 percent less corn in the bin. If we see accurate numbers in January it should move the corn market higher. Beans spent most of the week on the defensive side and lost 21 cents. The trade is ignoring all the Chinese trade talk news and will continue to do that until actual orders are placed. Even then they may be slow to react until the beans are actually on the way. Soybean export numbers have risen the past month as our beans are the cheapest in the world which is bringing the demand back to us. As harvest wraps up it appears the stocks owned by the farmer are going to stay locked up thru the holidays. This should narrow up some processor’s basis bids bringing some opportunity to move beans in the next month.   
 
Posted: 11/25/2019 6:00:00 AM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments


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