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November 11, 2019: Mark's Market Talk

November 11, 2019

The USDA released their November WASDE report last Friday. They left the bean acreage and yield alone and lowered the domestic crush 15 million. This in turn raised the carry out to 475 million bushels which is way better than the 900 plus we had a year ago. It was a somewhat neutral bean report, but January beans ended the day 5.5 cents lower. The trade expected a reduction in yield but now they will have to wait until the January report to see if they will in fact lower it. The corn numbers were a little better as they did lower the yield 1.4 bushels to 167. They reduced the expected exports 50 million bushels and lowered domestic usage 75 million. In the end the carryout was reduced by 19 million bushels which isn’t a lot in the whole scope of things. Friday Dec corn ended up 2 cents. So now that this report is out of the way what can we expect going forward. Bean harvest is about finished so the fear of harvest pressure is about over. A lot of beans were sold off the combine and now that the commercials have ownership, they will force end users to narrow their basis levels. Farmers that have stored beans seem to be in it for the long haul hoping the trade war comes to an end and China buys lots of beans. We appear close to setting the second harvest low and then prices should start to appreciate into winter and spring. The corn market is currently setting its self-up to do very little in the near term. There is still a lot of corn to harvest and the forecasted low temperatures will not help ease the propane shortage. Current basis levels are still very strong as end users try to entice producers to hand over their corn. Farmers are selling enough for cash flow needs and storing what they can. Again, like stated earlier it will be January before the USDA makes any further production adjustments that could push us higher. Fixing what ails the ethanol business would sure help us right now.

Today, November 11 is Veterans Day. I have the highest respect for everyone who has served our country in the armed services. We enjoy a huge amount of freedom due to the sacrifices these people have made over the years. Many made the ultimate sacrifice and we are truly indebted for this. Thanks to all of you.
 
Posted: 11/11/2019 6:00:00 AM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments


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