September 16, 2019: Mark's Market Talk

September 16, 2019

The September WASDE report was released last week and it was a little bearish corn and a little bullish to beans. Corn went lower right after the report but made a key reversal before the close Thursday and closed higher. For the week corn gained 14 cents and it appears we have put the preharvest low in place. The USDA made changes on both the production and usage sides and increased carryout a small 9 million bushels. They lowered the corn yield 1.3 bushels to a national average of 168.2. The trade was expecting a bigger cut. Last week’s corn ratings dropped 3 percent as the crop watchers are starting to look at how late this crop is. There is too much difference in this year and last year’s ratings to justify a 168 yield. There could be a lot of variability as harvest gets going. Everyone will be watching for early yield numbers. The early results may be the best of the year as they will come from corn planted at a normal time. The late planted corn will be harvested later and these acres will determine how good the 2019 harvest will be. The report was kinder to soybeans as they lowered the yield some and adjusted the use side and lowered the carryout 115 million bushels to 640. The general consensus is they didn’t lower the yield enough. As of last week, 8 percent of the nation’s beans were not setting pods yet. It doesn’t take an agronomy degree to predict a very poor yield on these acres. China came back to US beans last week as they bought some cargo loads. This shouldn’t be a surprise as our beans are a dollar cheaper than anybody else. If I read things right the Chinese government bought these so there won’t be a tariff added when they land in China. It also appears they will be buying lots of pork from the US as they can’t get their hog herds healthy. Both sides in our trade war made comments last week that might mean they are closer to some type of trade agreement. Yes, that might be an echo you just read as we have heard this song before. Hopefully we will start to see some light at the end of the tunnel with our commodity prices increasing. It will take some time and some of the floating pieces will need to fall into place. The trick to all of this as a producer will be identifying the correct time to price your production. Stay in touch with us at SFG and we will try to help steer you thru this maize.
 
 
Posted: 9/16/2019 10:54:27 AM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments