Mark's Market Talk for August 18, 2025

The commodity markets are not for the weak of heart. This past week is a perfect example of this. The USDA released their August supply and demand report last Tuesday and it sent shock waves through the CME. We had seen a couple predictions of very high corn yields and the government went that route as they predict a record yield of 188.8. However, no one was looking for a large increase in corn acres and we got that as they raised the total corn acres 2.1 million. This number jumped from the June report, and you can second guess this, but we can’t change what they said. This means total production is now 1 billion bushels larger than last month’s report. Corn headed south after the report and ended 14 cents lower that day. However, thanks to an 8-cent rally Friday the December contract closed even for the week. Not so bad in light of the very bearish report. Excellent export sales helped the market. While corn gained acres the USDA lowered bean acres by more than 2.5 million acres. They did increase their projected bean yield by 1.1 bushel to 53.6. At the end of the week November beans were 55 cents higher. The annual Pro Farmer crop tour is this week, and everyone will be watching their reports to see if they confirm the USDA yield numbers. Over the years this tour has been somewhat accurate as they visit the same areas each year. They work off population numbers along with ear weights and pod counts. They then compare this data to previous years to get to their estimates. The funds are still short corn 176,000 contracts and beans 35,000 contracts. At first glance you would expect them to push their bean holdings to the long side. Right now, it appears they are watching the South American bean production and the fact that we still have no new crop sales to China. We are competitive on the world market for both corn and beans and we are receiving orders from other countries, just not China. Domestic corn usage could be decreased at some point as our livestock numbers are low compared to normal. Old crop basis levels continue to widen as more end users are securing their needed supplies and will sit back for harvest to begin. The crop in our area still looks good. There have been several reports of sudden death in some beans and southern rust is appearing in some corn fields, even some fields that were treated with fungicide. The experts think the corn plants were already inoculated prior to the application. Even with these hiccups we are looking at bin busting yields.