Mark's Market Talk for August 17, 2026

The grain markets were busy last week. On Wednesday, the USDA released its August WASDE report, and it caused some excitement, especially in the corn market. Their corn numbers showed 1.4 million more planted corn acres than in their previous report. However, this was offset by lowering the average yield by 2.3 bushels to 180.7 bushels per acre. They also raised the amount of exports, and all told, the carryout was lowered by 139 million bushels to 1.653 billion bushels. At the end of the week, December corn was 21 cents higher. The funds also added to their long positions, and last Thursday night it was estimated they owned 212,000 contracts.

On the bean side, they also added 1.4 million planted acres while lowering the yield by 0.3 bushel to 52.7 bushels per acre. They also made some adjustments to the usage numbers, and in the end, their estimated carryout increased 10 million bushels to 320 million. The funds added to their bean positions as well and now stand at 133,000 contracts.

Three things will provide most of the price movement this week. First is weather. Did rain reach the areas that needed it the most? Some areas in the East had way too much rain, and some crop has been lost. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is also this week, and we will all be interested in what they find as they travel through the major growing areas.

The wars are another factor. Ukraine bombed Russia's largest grain port last week, and that helped push corn and wheat prices higher. The continued attacks are hurting each country's ability to export crops, which helps support U.S. prices. The U.S. and Iran are still not agreeing, so the price of oil is staying high. Fall fertilizer supplies are also becoming a growing concern for farmers.

The last item is grain exports, and they have been very strong this summer. Corn will finish the marketing year well ahead of projections, and soybeans are also doing better. China has been a regular buyer lately, and so far, they are buying on a more normal schedule for them. We still need to see progress on the large amount they have told us they would buy. They like our quality and protein levels and are willing to pay a little premium for them, but they will not pay a dollar more than what they can buy from Brazil.

Some think we have put in the new crop lows, and perhaps we have. But where the crop is excellent, we will still see harvest price pressure. Think about pricing some of the bushels that have to come to town sooner rather than later.