Mark's Market Talk for August 24, 2026

The state fair is over, most schools are back in session, and harvest is just around the corner. The grain markets made some impressive moves last week. The Pro Farmer crop tour reported its final estimates late Thursday, with its national corn yield coming in at 173.2 bushels per acre. That is 7.5 bushels below the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7. This helped push corn 25 cents higher last week, as the Pro Farmer corn numbers were poor throughout the tour. December corn is now a dollar higher than it was a year ago.

The funds have also increased their long positions, and by Thursday afternoon they were at 275,000 contracts. We will soon start seeing actual yields as early harvest moves north. Over the years, the Pro Farmer crop tour has been reasonably close, but it has not always been right. They visit many of the same areas each year, which gives them a better year-over-year comparison. This year, they reported that hot weather had impacted yields, and most of us thought that was a possibility after the extreme heat we experienced in July. Fortunately, most areas also had decent moisture. Without that moisture, the heat could have had an even greater impact on yields.

Meanwhile, their soybean estimate came in at 53.3 bushels per acre, which is 0.6 bushels higher than the USDA’s August estimate. While pod counts were a little lower than normal, the tour found good moisture in most areas and felt that would help increase bean size. Soybeans followed corn’s lead and closed the week 47 cents higher, helped by excellent export sales. Beans are currently $1.85 higher than they were a year ago, and we are also at a four-year high for sales during this period.

Overall, we had a good week in the grain markets. Several producers made new-crop sales, and with these better markets, that looks like the right thing to do. You always hope the later sales will be at even better prices, but if the markets turn south, you will be glad to have something on the books. Harvest is getting closer, and before long we will have actual yield reports to compare with all of these estimates. That should give us a much better idea of what this crop really has in the field.