Mark's Market Talk for August 3, 2026

There were plenty of red numbers on the commodity screen last week. Corn closed the week 23 cents lower while soybeans finished down 66 cents. The biggest factor behind the selloff was a shift in the weather forecast from hot and dry conditions to cooler temperatures with better chances of rain across much of the Corn Belt.

In most major corn growing areas, the crop is now filling, and it appears pollination was generally successful. Soybeans have responded well to the recent heat, and many fields have made noticeable progress over the past couple of weeks. If we receive timely rainfall through the remainder of August, pod fill and seed size should continue to improve.

The fighting continues in both Iran and Ukraine as neither conflict appears close to ending. One hundred dollar crude oil provided some early support for the grain markets, but traders are now placing much more emphasis on crop yield potential than geopolitical concerns. Weather is once again taking center stage as the market tries to determine just how large this year's harvest could become.

China, along with several unknown buyers, continues to purchase new crop soybeans. Export sales are running ahead of where they were during the past three years, which is encouraging. However, world soybean supplies remain plentiful, so unless weather problems develop somewhere in the world, it may be difficult for soybean prices to move significantly higher.

Corn continues to have a stronger demand story than soybeans. Export demand for U.S. corn remains solid, and unlike soybeans, global corn stocks continue to tighten. As we move closer to harvest, more private yield estimates will be released, giving the market a better idea of whether this summer's heat reduced production potential.

Early corn harvest has already begun in the southern United States, and harvest across the Midwest appears likely to begin on schedule or perhaps even a little early. Within the next six to seven weeks we should begin seeing actual yield reports instead of estimates. Those first harvest results will go a long way toward determining how the 2026 crop ultimately performs and where grain prices head through the fall.