Mark's Market Talk for January 13, 2025
Jan 13, 2025

Report day was last Friday and this time the surprises were positive ones. On the corn side they lowered the 2024 yield 3.8 bushels an acre from the December report. They raised the harvested acres by 200,000, but that still lowered the ending stocks by almost 200 million bushels to 1.54 billion, which is far better than the 2 billion plus we were looking at earlier last fall. For the week corn was 20 cents higher with 14 of that coming Friday. On the bean side the yield was lowered 1 bushel, and the harvested acres were decreased by 200,000 which all worked to lower the ending stocks down 90 million bushels to 380 million bushels. The report was very friendly to both corn and beans, and if South America wasn’t looking at a record crop, we could start talking profitable farming again. The USDA chose not to adjust anything in South America this time around. That is sort of understandable as they have a variety of yield prospects currently. By mid-March we will all have a better handle on their crop. One question coming out of this report, will the farmer continue to push corn acres this spring versus beans. Friday’s report gave beans some breathing room for our production, but it will probably not overcome a huge Brazilian crop if it continues to develop. Another news story from Friday is the report that the US will sanction the Russian oil sector due to their continued war with Ukraine. This propelled crude oil higher right away. This might make US produced oil higher on the world market if the sanctions hold.