Mark's Market Talk for January 12, 2026

I am writing this on Friday, so I do not yet know what Monday’s WASDE report will show. There are plenty of guesses circulating, and someone may end up being right. This past week, the markets traded mostly sideways, with corn ending the week 8 cents higher. Beans performed a little better, finishing up 17 cents.

It is believed that China has purchased more than 80 percent of the soybeans they agreed to buy early last fall. However, not all of those purchases have been shipped yet, so there is still a risk that some could be canceled. China has recently been auctioning government-held soybean stocks, and reports suggest the quality has been poor. Some of these beans have been in storage for up to three years in less-than-ideal facilities. It is assumed they will refill some of that storage for emergency needs. Typically, China prefers U.S. beans for storage because they are drier and higher quality than Brazilian beans. Hopefully, this will help them hold onto the purchases they have already made from the U.S.

Corn exports have remained strong and should continue, especially with the Mexican border closed to feeder cattle. Reports indicate feedlots in the Hereford, Texas area are nearly half empty due to the screwworm ban. This cattle shortage is also forcing packers to temporarily close some large beef plants because of tight supplies. The bottom line is that if the USDA raises corn export numbers, they will likely lower domestic demand to offset it. That leaves corn yield as the biggest question mark in the upcoming corn report.