Mark's Market Talk for January 26, 2026

We had a better week on the board, with March corn closing 6 cents higher and March soybeans up 10 cents. Corn found support late in the week as wheat rallied on winterkill concerns tied to extremely cold air across the Plains. Adding to the strength, corn exports posted a record-breaking week as demand responded to the price break we saw a couple of weeks ago.

March corn settled Friday at $4.30, less than a cent off the high of the day. Even so, there is still a big hill to climb to get back to $4.50. That will require continued strong export sales and possibly some drier weather developing in Argentina. While Argentine crop ratings declined last week, we are still a long way from anything resembling a crop failure.

Funds remain only moderately short corn futures at roughly 81,000 contracts. That leaves some room for a rally, but it will likely take a bigger headline to truly excite this market. The next major catalyst will be the late-March planting intentions report.

We are already seeing a yo-yo effect between corn and beans. When soybeans bottomed three to four weeks ago, there was talk of a significant acreage shift toward corn. Now that prices have partially reversed, soybeans may have a slight edge. Unfortunately, it may not be a question of which crop is more profitable, but rather which one loses less money.

Soybeans managed to claw back some value last week, but headwinds remain. It appears China has already purchased its agreed-upon 12 million metric tons, meaning new demand will be needed to push prices higher. That could be difficult, as Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper on the world market.