Mark's Market Talk for July 27, 2026

Some years we see a true weather rally around this time of year. This year we are once again facing hot and dry forecasts as we head into the second half of summer. The grain markets are trying to rally, and while weather is part of the reason, the two ongoing wars are also playing a major role.

Last week the Ukraine-Russia war intensified, with both sides bombing grain ports and ships. That sent the wheat market sharply higher since the region produces a significant amount of the world's wheat and is currently in the middle of harvest. Corn followed wheat's lead and finished the week 18 to 20 cents higher.

The conflict between the United States and Iran also escalated last week, pushing crude oil prices back toward the $100 per barrel range. That has provided additional support for soybeans, which ended the week 47 to 50 cents higher. Fund traders continue to favor soybeans, and as of Thursday they were long 103,000 contracts. They are likely holding even more after Friday's 10-cent rally. The funds were also long 106,000 corn contracts as of Thursday. Both markets still have room for additional buying if current conditions continue.

However, things can change quickly. A rumor circulated Friday that Russia and Ukraine were discussing an agreement not to target grain ships as long as they were properly identified. Have you ever seen cannons on a grain ship? Eventually someone will have to say "uncle" in the U.S.-Iran conflict as well. What many thought would be a short war is now stretching into its seventh month. So far, the biggest winners have been the oil companies, while the entire world continues to pay higher energy prices because of the conflict.

The final major market mover is still the weather. Whenever traders see a hot and dry forecast in July, they immediately begin worrying about crop production. Today's corn and soybean varieties can withstand far more stress than crops could years ago. Extended periods of heat and dryness can certainly reduce yields, and we may eventually reach that point before harvest. For now, though, the safest approach is to expect trendline yields and make marketing plans accordingly.