Mark's Market Talk for July 6, 2026

The 4th of July has come and gone, and now we are headed into fair season. Before we know it, school will be back in session. We had a week of hot, dry weather, and the crop loved it.

The extra moisture we saw in June came in handy, and it appears we have survived the first stretch of summer weather. There is a difference of opinion on what the next 60 days hold for us. If we can get through pollination and receive a couple of decent rains, this corn crop has the potential to be very good.

Finally, the beans are looking better as the rows are starting to close. Weed pressure has been more difficult because the rain weakened the residual pre-emerge herbicides, and we were seeing new flushes much sooner than we should have. Hopefully, the crop will outgrow the next flush of weeds.

The USDA released its June grain stocks and updated acreage reports last Tuesday. Some years this report is very volatile and can be a major market mover. This year, however, it was mostly neutral.

Corn stocks came in 119 million bushels below the estimate, but they were still 652 million bushels higher than a year ago. Corn acreage came in 200,000 acres above the estimate, but it matched the March projection. Bean stocks were 11 million bushels above estimates and 53 million bushels higher than a year ago.

Bean acreage came in 200,000 acres higher than expected and 700,000 acres above last year. The trade had expected larger numbers, as both corn and beans were down around 10 cents last Monday ahead of the report. After the report, corn recovered those losses and closed the week a penny higher.

Beans struggled a little more and finished the week down 5 cents. By Thursday, the trade seemed content to head into the three-day holiday weekend without adding much protection. As of Wednesday afternoon, funds were estimated to be short 10,000 corn contracts and long 68,000 soybean contracts.

The market will trade corn pollination over the next three weeks before shifting its focus to August rainfall for the soybean crop. Other market news continues to revolve around the war and Chinese purchases. Both are difficult to get a handle on.

The administration will continue doing its best to bring oil prices down well ahead of the election. Chinese buying will remain price-sensitive, and we are not always the lowest-cost supplier in the world. Weather, export demand, and outside markets will continue to drive price direction as we move further into the growing season.