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Mark's Market Talk

June 29, 2020

Tic toc, tic toc. The clock is ticking down on pricing opportunities for both old and new crop grain. Most of the major grain growing areas are looking at friendly weather forecasts for the next week to 10 days. This will take us to the start of pollination and if we get thru that unscathed the corn yield potential should be very good. There are some areas of dry concern in western Iowa into Nebraska where they have missed just about every rain since planting. Should this area grow it could become a weather story. Until then all eyes will be focused on the supply and acreage reports that are due out this Tuesday. The acreage report is always a market mover and I do not see this year being any different. The trade is looking for 95.1 acres of corn versus the intended 97 that was reported in March. The average trade guess on bean acres is 84.8 million versus the March intention of 83.5. Both numbers are larger than last year’s 89.3 acres of corn and 76.1 acres of beans. If we could bet on the probability that these numbers will be different in the report, I would be in line placing a bet. I will save my arguments on this subject for next week when I can discuss the actual numbers they release. A large part of the acreage change is in the Dakotas where a wet spring forced a lot of acres into prevent plant.  This past week was a down market time as July corn was down 16 cents and July beans were down 7 cents. Both new crop prices were down worse than old crop as non- threatening weather is giving the trade thoughts of large crops. Once we get thru this week’s reports there will not be any big news stories between now and harvest except weather and export numbers. China continues to go hot and cold on their buying commitments. The word is they need a lot of grain and meat and even though the US is the best priced grain in the world they remain hesitant to buy from us. Perhaps they are in the betting line that says if you wait it will get cheaper yet. Let’s hope they lose that bet.   
Posted: 6/29/2020 1:27:29 PM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments

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