Mark's Market Talk for June 17, 2024

We survived a USDA stocks report last Wednesday unscathed as it was a non-event. We were trading higher for the week until we got to Friday and suddenly the funds decided the US weather was non-threatening at this point of the season and they did not want to go home on the long side for the weekend. Corn ended the week a penny lower while beans were steady. The funds have increased their short positions in the past week and are now short 212,000 corn contracts and 75 bean contracts. We are a long way from where they were earlier this spring when they were record short both crops, but they have sold off some of the contracts they have bought in the past month. This week we have a federal holiday on Wednesday, so we have 2- 2day trading sessions so to speak. While the current weather seems somewhat benign, there are long term forecasts calling for a hot and dry mid-summer. Last year we were extremely dry in most of the corn belt, but the crop got planted timely and stands were rated excellent in most areas. Most of us got the bare minimum of rain last summer and yet we saw a record crop. It has taken several weeks this year to get the crop planted. And while there are areas with excellent stands, most areas have had trouble getting this crop in the ground and up and going. And for once it isn’t just southern Iowa having trouble. There have been issues in many major growing areas where poor ground conditions caused planting issues, and in many cases required replanting. Some of these producers rarely experience this and it is difficult to see a trendline yield coming out of a staggered planting season. So now we turn our attention to the major June crop report which will be out on the 28^th. They will update acreage and yield expectations. This is normally a volatile report, and it appears this year will be no different.