Mark's Market Talk for June 16, 2025

Wild and crazy could be used to describe last weeks markets. Mid-week some interior bean processors decided it was time to start the annual rob the farmer end play. They rolled their nearby basis bids clear to the November contract and priced all deliveries the same from now to October. This was far more dramatic than normal, and it came a month earlier than normal. It would be an understatement to say they upset the apple cart. Some terminals dropped their nearby bean bid 60 or 70 cents. This came with no warning whatsoever. Thursday the USDA released their June supply and demand report. The bean numbers did not change at all, while they lowered the corn carryout a little due to export demand. As normal a neutral to slightly bullish report caused the markets to retreat just a bit. Going into Friday it appeared we would have lower weekly closes across the board. Then 2 things happened. Israel bombed their neighbor Iran trying to cripple their nuclear ability. This sent crude oil 5.00 higher. Then mid-morning the EPA released their Renewable Fuel Quotas which were far better than anyone in the industry had seen coming. This sent the bean oil market up the 300-point limit, and it held throughout the session. This in turn sent beans up 27 cents and saved us from having another down week. In the end July beans closed the week up 12 cents and up 18 cents for November. July corn was up 2 cents while December corn struggled all week and closed 6 cents lower. What was not included in the fuel numbers was the amount of small refiner waivers that will be given. Just another case of the government giving and taking from our pockets. That should be announced next week. This will be a 4-day trade week as the board is closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday.