Mark's Market Talk for March 30, 2026

Last week corn and bean futures were having a decent run until Friday. The President and EPA released their RVO (Renewable Volume Obligation) numbers during a farmer event at the White House. In the weeks leading up to the announcement, anticipation had helped push both corn and beans higher.

The announced gallonage came in close to expectations, but because it did not exceed them, the market sold off into the close on Friday. May beans dropped 14 cents and May corn gave up 5 cents. For the week, corn finished down 3 cents and beans closed 2 cents lower.

The next major market mover will be Tuesday’s USDA reports. The headline report is the March Planting Intentions report. Over the past two months, trade estimates have leaned toward fewer corn acres and more bean acres, possibly significantly more. However, it is important to remember that most of this data was collected prior to the escalation of the Iran conflict, so it will not reflect any acreage shifts caused by rising input costs tied to the war.

The second key report is the Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which has the potential to create just as much volatility as the acreage numbers. There is growing sentiment that USDA has been slow to reduce domestic corn demand, especially given smaller livestock numbers on feed. At the same time, cattle and hogs are being fed to heavier weights, which increases total corn usage as feed efficiency declines with size.

Funds remain heavily long in both corn and soybean futures. Current estimates suggest they hold roughly 260,000 long corn contracts, with a significant portion added since the war began. In soybeans, funds are estimated to be long 245,000 contracts, approaching the record of 254,000. That kind of positioning leaves the market vulnerable.

If bean acres come in above expectations or corn stocks are larger than anticipated, fund managers may start heading for the exits. That kind of liquidation could accelerate downside pressure in a hurry.

Beyond grains, the broader macro picture also matters. If the conflict continues and oil prices push higher, equity markets could weaken. That would likely fuel inflation concerns and put upward pressure on interest rates. That combination is not favorable for agriculture.

At this point, a resolution to the conflict would go a long way toward stabilizing both the broader economy and commodity markets.