Mark's Market Talk for May 18, 2026

Last week was a perfect example of what happens when everybody gets hyped up over a “sure thing” and starts placing all their bets on the come line. One of the biggest drivers in the bean market over the past two months has been the anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Traders were convinced a deal was coming, and that China would step in to buy more beans, a lot of beans, along with other ag products. Instead, President Trump came home early last Friday without any new sales agreements in hand.

In fact, early Thursday morning, the Secretary of the Treasury stated on CNBC that China had already purchased the beans agreed to last fall and would not be buying additional beans this marketing year. That announcement sent the commodity markets into a tailspin, and by Friday afternoon the selling pressure had still not let up. The funds have been heavily long on both corn and bean contracts, and much of that optimism had been tied directly to the expectation of a Chinese trade deal.

Right now, there are not many other bullish factors left in the market. Planting progress has moved ahead rapidly, old crop grain stocks, especially corn, remain abundant, and Argentine corn is currently priced well below U.S. supplies. If we raise a trendline crop or better this year, we may find ourselves struggling to use all of it.

At the start of the Iranian conflict, corn was following crude oil higher. Now oil remains well above $100 a barrel, yet December corn is struggling to stay above $4.80. Year-round E15 passed the U.S. House, but the Senate could still prove troublesome. Once again, big oil holds a lot of cards in this game, and they are likely to play every one of them.

Progressive fund managers use stop-loss measures when trading grain contracts. Once a market reaches a certain high and begins to retreat, computer programs automatically trigger sales. As farmers, we probably need more discipline to do something similar ourselves. It is never easy to sell into a falling market, even when you know it is the right move. Farmers are eternal optimists. If we were not, none of us would stay in this business very long.