Mark's Market Talk for May 26, 2026

We are into the last full week of May, and so far we have not lost the crop yet. For many, it has been a frustrating planting season as we have dealt with both overly dry and overly wet conditions. The current forecast is finally showing some heat this week, and the crop could sure use it.

Volatility is still the best word to describe the grain markets right now. The uncertainty surrounding the Iranian conflict and Chinese buying interest has kept the markets moving almost daily. Part of the problem may simply be how quickly news reaches people now. The internet moves at the speed of light, and very few people have to wait for the evening news anymore to know what is happening around the world. With a connected cell phone in hand, people can follow every headline in real time.

Large grain trading firms use computer programs designed to react instantly to political and economic news. Commodity markets today are trading more on headlines and politics than actual supply and demand fundamentals. Eventually, though, fundamentals tend to outlast the political noise. When the excitement fades, we may find ourselves looking at a very different market situation.

Nationally, crops are getting planted faster than normal, and overall weather conditions remain mostly favorable. The funds are still heavily long both corn and soybeans. At the end of last week, funds were long 261,000 corn contracts and 192,000 soybean contracts. Those are not record positions, but they are still well above normal levels. Traders have been defending those positions, which helped push markets higher last week. July corn finished the week up 7 cents, while soybeans closed 19 cents higher. Even so, both markets remain below where they were two weeks ago before several large down days.

Historically, many years see one of the seasonal highs arrive in late May or early June. From there, it usually takes a significant weather problem to move markets substantially higher. Much of the recent rally has been driven by political developments rather than hard market fundamentals. Once the steam runs out of the headlines, attention will likely shift back to crop size, weather, and demand. That may not end up favoring farmers as much as the current market action has.