Mark's Market Talk for November 11, 2024

A lot went on last week with the elections and WASDE report that came out Friday. There were fears somewhere in all of this they might break the markets lower. However, we ended the week nicely higher as corn gained 17 cents and beans ended the week up 36 cents. World veg oil prices were the leading factor in the push higher on beans as palm oil took off pulling soy oil with it. The fear of Trump winning and hurting the bean market with tariffs was softened by news that he would stop the biofuel tax credits on imported veg oils. This would force the refiners to use American grown oils to get the credits. The process currently does not work without these credits. Friday’s USDA report was also friendly beans as they reduced the average yield 1.4 bushels which was more than most expected. They also reduced bean exports and lowered the expected domestic crush some. This tempered the yield reduction some, but this report was prepared well before the election and the proposed ban on imported veg oils will influence crush numbers to the positive side. Corn slowly worked higher all week as harvest winds down. Basis levels improved as farm bin doors have been shut and grain movement will be limited until farmers either see an opportunity, or they need money. Friday’s report was mainly friendly corn as they reduced the national yield by .7 bushel. Many thought they might raise it a bushel or more. This may come on the December report as they will have more actual yield data. Corn export sales which were slow to get going this year have really taken off and there has been announced sales most days. Our corn remains well priced on the world market and buyers know they can expect quality grain from the US. So, was last week the start of a reversal on these lower commodity prices?  Maybe, the world still has large amounts of corn and beans, and we are not in danger of running out anytime soon. The South American weather has turned better, and their slow planting progress has made great strides in catching up with where they should be at this time. Should they raise a normal crop on the increased acres they plan to plant the world carryout will increase and we may find 10.00 cash beans are hard to find. Therefore, one should take advantage of a rally like we saw last week and get some sales made.