Mark's Market Talk for October 7, 2024
Oct 07, 2024

We saw a missed bag in the markets last week as December corn gained 6 cents while November beans lost 28 cents. The funds continued to shed their short positions and are now short 60,000 corn contracts and about 30,000 bean contracts. This is a small amount compared to where they were 6 weeks ago, and this would be one reason we have rallied recently. South American weather still dominates the bean market. Late last week the forecast turned a little wetter and we saw the bean market retreat quickly. If the rain does not amount to much, we may see this premium added back in. Mid-October is their mid-April timeframe. If they delay the bean planting too much, it will influence their Safrina corn crop as it will go into the ground late and miss the opportune planting dates. However, just like here they are using newer genetics that take more stress than our older varieties. We are seeing and hearing a large difference in harvest yields. Many producers in our trade area are reporting record yields. On the other side we are hearing subpar results in some high producing areas in the Midwest that were too wet this spring. Then some of these areas turned dry this summer further damaging their crops. Harvest pressure is starting to affect basis levels as more than ample supplies are available for purchase. Carry has returned to the market and after some inverse years this is very welcome.