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Mark's Market Talk

September 20, 2022

The USDA released their September report the 12th of September. Normally this report is a sleeper, but not this year. The trade expected them to lower the corn yield and they did take 2.9 bushel off it. They also reduced the corn acres by 1 million as the FSA had released their final planting numbers. They also played with the demand side and brought the carryout down to 1.219 million bushels. The trade expected them to either leave the bean yield at 51.9, or possibly raise it. Here is where the surprise kicked in as they lowered the yield 1.4 bushels to 50.5. They also reduced the bean acres 600,000 acres. Just like corn they played with the demand side and ended up with a 200 million bushel carryout which was bullish. Beans shot up right after the report and ended the day 75 cents higher. Overall, it was a somewhat bullish report, and we are already looking forward to the October report when they will have some fresh yield data to share. Weather in this country has become less of a concern as most areas are mature and rain might be too late for most crops. Of course, cattlemen are still wanting rain to jumpstart their pastures as they have taken a beating the past 60 days in our area. A very small bit of harvest took place locally last week and it looks like we will start to see more happen this week. Last week corn was 8 cents lower while beans closed the week 36 cents higher.  Basis levels widened out on both crop as harvest started. Nearby corn basis lost over 50 cents while some bean plants brought their nearby bids closer to the October bids. This gap will continue to narrow as we get more into harvest and stocks become more available. Bean exports remain strong while corn is struggling as we are too high in the world market. That will change later in the year when we have the dominate supply, but until then we will have to depend on our domestic demand.  
 
Posted: 9/20/2022 2:46:44 PM by Rob Matherly | with 0 comments


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