Mark's Market Talk for September 8, 2026

You might have to go back to the late summer of 2012 to find a grain rally like we have seen over the past month. Corn had a decent week even though it closed steady last week. Corn has been a follower of wheat as the wheat market exploded after Russia and Ukraine started blowing each other’s ports up last month. This past week, December Chicago wheat was 50 cents lower while corn closed steady. That shows corn does have some support underneath the market, even with wheat giving back some of its recent gains.

Harvest pressure may help stall the upward trend in prices, but the funds were record long last Thursday night, holding 487,000 corn contracts. It will be up to the funds to defend their position, and that will be easier to do if the early harvest yields are disappointing. The September Supply and Demand report will be released this Friday, and everyone will be watching the updated corn yield estimate. Will USDA drop their yield estimate to the Pro Farmer number, or will they hold it in the 180 bushel area? It appears the trade expects them to lower the number some, but the question is how much.

Beans continue their Eveready Bunny dance as they closed the week 22 cents higher. The fundamentals are not particularly bean-friendly, but traders continue to love owning beans. The funds were almost at a record long position last Thursday, as they are thought to own 240,000 contracts. The record long position is 254,000 contracts. China was almost a daily buyer of soybeans last week, and that may continue as we are currently priced better than South America. China may also be trying to show a commitment to buying what they have said they would purchase.

The extreme heat we have seen over the past week or so will push the start of harvest earlier than expected. It appears a lot of corn may come out in September ahead of the soybean harvest. Early harvest could bring some additional pressure to the market, especially if yields are better than expected, so we need to be prepared for some volatility as combines start rolling.

Let’s be careful as we get into harvest mode. It is easy to get in a hurry when the weather is right and there is a lot of work to get done, but it is hard to proceed if you get in a hurry and injure yourself. We want everyone to get home safely each night.