Mark's Market Talk

Apr 26, 2021

Wow what a week. We have seen some wild things happen in the markets since harvest finished last fall, but I think last week takes the cake for being the wildest. Two weather stories combined to create some fireworks. Cold weather throughout the Midwest has kept a lot of corn planters sitting. That started to change late in the week as the forecast turned warmer. This may be a year we see just how fast we can plant the corn crop as most were ready and just waiting for warmer weather. The other big story is the hot and dry conditions in Brazil. Their second crop corn is suffering, and the experts are lowering the expected production. By week’s end July corn was 61 cents higher while Dec was 40 higher. Most terminals rolled to the July futures and sometimes this allows them to adjust the actual basis to their advantage. However, with stocks on the short side they were not able to pull that off this time so if anything, we saw a stronger net market for the week. Beans pulled off a similar feat as July beans closed the week 94 cents higher while Nov beans were 67 higher. I can not remember prices pushing higher like this in April. We have not planted the crop, so we have a long way to go. It shows us that the trade is concerned with our falling stocks numbers and if there is a hiccup this summer everyone wants on board. We need to remember that when everyone is headed the same way we can be easily fooled. The funds are record long the corn market by a huge amount. It is not if we see liquidation but when it happens, and things could change in a hurry when it does happen. A rally is meant to be rewarded and if you do not take advantage of these prices on the way up, it might be tough to get in on the way down. New crop prices are at very profitable levels and deserve some attention.  Let the planters roll.