Mark's Market Talk

Just when you think the grain markets cannot get any crazier, we have a week like last week. The grain markets were strongly higher. July corn ended the week 71 cents higher, and the Dec was 28 higher. Beans rebounded nicely after a bearish planting report that came out March 31. July beans were 1.01 higher and the November price was 89 cents higher. That put the bean market back where it was prior to the report while December corn posted a new high. Basis levels are showing some strength as demand for exports is growing due to the Ukrainian war. Domestic usage continues to be strong for feed and ethanol prompting end users to pay up a little more for supplies. It is safe to say the easy grain has been bought and those producers still holding have the ability to wait the market out if they want to. It may be too early to talk about planting delays, but the nearby weather forecasts are not planter friendly. Some predictions show a cool pattern thru April before we see some heat. The eastern corn-belt is wet while the west is still suffering from drought conditions. A lot is riding on this planting season as producers grapple with high input costs. Rapid inflation is affecting the entire country. The Fed’s answer will be to raise interest rates. Agriculture uses lots of capital so an increase in interest rates will just add more costs to many producers cash flow.