Mark's Market Talk for April 7, 2025

A week ago, all the focus was on the big USDA reports that came out last Monday. This was one of the few times these March reports were very quiet. The corn and bean stock numbers were close to projected. The corn acres were on the high side of expectations and bean acres were close. All in all, we came through the report unscathed. The hammer fell Wednesday afternoon when the administration announced the start of the feared tariffs. Fortunately, Mexico and Canada were mostly left alone. However, China and several other countries were hit with some steep tariffs, China was at 34%. Most of these countries returned the favor so it is costing Americans on both sides of the equation. Corn ended the week higher as May corn was up 7 cents and December corn was 4 cents higher. Beans on the other hand took a big hit on Thursday and Friday. May beans closed the week 46 cents lower and November beans ended the week 45 cents lower. Along with a down bean market crude oil was 10 percent lower and the DOW lost 8% of its value last week. So, if you raise soybeans and have a 401K, you had a bad week. The big question is “now what?” We would all love to know the answer to these questions. Several countries have come forward and asked what they can do to resolve this trade war. For most it is simple, they can pull back their tariffs and most of this will go away for them. China and some other more stubborn countries act like they want to play a tug of war game and see who cries uncle first. Part of our problem is this is not a good time to play this game. For the most part there are amble grain stocks in the world, so we get hung out very easily since there are other alternatives available at this moment. Tighter stocks would have been helpful. All we can do right now is hope we find some solid footing and we rebound the bean market higher. Pork and beef were both down hard last Friday as their exports will take a hit also. Last thing, the corn bean ratio Friday afternoon was 2.20 to 1. A neutral ratio is 2.5 to 1, Corn acres will not switch back to beans.