Mark's Market Talk

Aug 07, 2023

The grain trade was tough on prices last week. December corn was down 33 cents while November beans were down 49 cents. Bullish news was very hard to come by as the weather turned a little cooler and wetter for a good part of the corn belt. Some areas that were suffering in prior weeks have now gotten some rain and those crops have perked up giving those farmers some hope of a respectable crop. There are still areas that have been damaged and will produce subpar yields, but it appears those areas are starting to shrink late in the season. At this point the trade seems reluctant to overprice anything. The funds are short the corn and wheat trade and they reduced their long bean position last week. On the war front both sides are bombing ports and destroying infrastructure in both countries. What a shame for the people on both sides of this conflict. This Friday the USDA will release their August supply and demand report which will include some producer surveys. Odds are this report will be a mover as it will affect our carryout numbers. The negatives in the corn trade include better yields than we thought a month ago plus the final planted acre number could increase. Tie that with the total lack of export sales and it might be hard to move the corn market higher. For beans the thought they may have underestimated planted acres if realized would be a problem along with a better August weather forecast which could put the bean yield back toward the top of expectations. We will see some movement ahead of the report as traders stake their claim. But at 11:00 Friday all bets are off as the report is released.