Mark's Market Talk
Dec 27, 2022
The markets were quieter than the weather last week as corn was up 13 cents while beans ended the week steady. Wheat was the leader as it was up from 22 to 30 cents depending on which market you look at. The cold weather is threatening the winter wheat crop, so we saw some weather premium getting added in. This along with higher crude gave the corn market a little boost. Basis levels on nearby corn continues to be strong as end users are seeking supplies. The bean market is being driven by the weather in Argentina. The forecast there changes daily as rain chances come and go. Currently it appears they may not plant all their acres due to the dry dirt. However, the crop in Brazil is large and for the most part doing well so it may make up for any loss that Argentina suffers. Argentina processes almost all their beans and are the world’s largest exporter of meal. This has led to meal prices in this country being stronger than normal which is good for the bean producer and bad for the livestock people. Going into the new year the traders will be watching the same market factors that has influenced them the past few months. The war in Ukraine is far from over and may escalate as Putin is determined to conquer, while the people of Ukraine continue to fight a good fight. Their grain exports have slowed down the past month as ships are not getting loaded timely and insurance companies would prefer not to cover ships in the Black Sea. World weather: Argentina isn’t the only part of the world with weather problems as many areas continue to be on the dry side. The third big topic is the world economy. There is a lot of nervousness worldwide as the major countries are all battling inflation, the effects of covid, and higher interest rates. This shows in our poor corn exports as countries that need corn are holding back thinking the price will break before they are desperate for corn. As always, I encourage everyone to stay informed and put a pencil to paper and draw up some type of marketing plan. Thinking we will see 7.00 plus corn and 15.00 plus beans is a great goal to have, and we aren’t that far from these prices. But we can easily lose 50 cents or a dollar before we reach those goals. Therefore, consider making some sales while the basis is high and eliminate some risk and sleep a little better at night.