Mark's Market Talk for December 11, 2023

The USDA released their December stocks report last Friday and it was about as neutral as it could be. They raised corn exports 25 million while they left everything else alone on corn and beans. They normally do not adjust production on this report, but they may choose to next month. For the week corn was a penny higher while beans lost 8 cents. The weather in Brazil was less threating late in the week as rain chances showed some improvement. Of course, this has to materialize, or some weather premium will get put back this week. While all eyes are on the weather in the southern hemisphere there hasn’t been a lot of talk of how dry we are right here in the Midwest. I talked to an older gentleman last week that had a well go dry that was dug in 1973 and had never failed to keep up with the farm’s livestock. Cities that depend on surface and river water are looking for alternatives. People that are tiling talk about how dry the ground is as they are wearing shoes in the trenches and not boots. Granted we can get wet a lot faster than it can dry out, but today there is no indication that our warm/dry pattern is going to change anytime soon. This all leads us to ponder what we do with all this grain we have locked away waiting for higher prices. You can sell part or all of what you have right now, quit paying interest if you have money borrowed against it, and start working on marketing the 24 crops you will plant next spring. Or you can roll the dice and hold on and see what weather markets might provide for us. Today there are ample grain stocks in the world that could keep a lid on prices. However, a good weather scare can still shake things up in a hurry. Probably the best prices will go to those that recognize when a rally is peaking. That will not be easy since we are used to much higher corn prices than we have today. Being greedy does not make a man rich.