Mark's Market Talk

Feb 06, 2023

A somewhat quiet week in the grain trade as March corn closed 2 cents higher while the Dec was 1 higher. March beans were 2 lower and Nov was a penny lower. It has been a long time since we had this small of a week-to-week difference. March corn pushed above 6.85 a couple of times during the week, but it couldn’t close above it. This has become a super tight ceiling and in order to push on toward 7.00 we must finish this job. The problems include slow exports and the hesitation of the funds to push their long positions longer. This Wednesday’s USDA report is worrying some as they expect a further adjustment on exports which would increase the carryout number. Old crop beans have been led to this level by higher meal values which is currently overshadowing the prospect of higher yields in Brazil. We are still seeing some current export sales while Brazil fights the wet harvest weather. However, these sales are not additional sales as the Brazil bean harvest will run late and they may still be selling beans as the US starts harvest this fall. New crop values were stagnant just like the current markets last week. If an acre war is going to happen, we should see it develop within a month. A possible concern is how long the funds have become in both corn and beans. If the USDA would throw a big negative report at us this week, we might see a mad rush for the door. Hopefully the report will be like last week’s trade, Quiet.