Mark's Market Talk for February 24, 2025

Winter has finally woken up the past couple of weeks and reminded us we live in Iowa with ever changing weather. This week will feel almost like spring, but we know it is too early. Last week we saw corn lose 5 cents while beans gained 3.5 cents. Corn has had a nice run the past 6 to 8 weeks and a setback really wasn’t a big surprise. The funds have grown their long positions, and now appear ready to take a break. Export sales have been excellent, but they are slowing some as Argentina is starting to ship corn. To date we have seen 427 million bushels more corn sold than a year ago. The next big mover will be the USDA’s planting intentions report that comes out this Friday. The common thought is we will plant 4 to 5 million more acres of corn and if they use a trend line yield of 175 our stocks will increase rapidly. Beans made a small gain last week although there was no major reason why. The Brazilian harvest is now full steam ahead and the advantage that their slow harvest had given us on exports will get paid back as they will now be able to extend their bean supply almost to the start of our next harvest. That is a long time away. We know that corn acres are going to grow this spring. The question will be how many acres beans will lose. It does not appear it will be an even split. Cotton is expected to lose acres to corn and there could be some lost winter wheat acres that turn into corn fields. Pay attention to the report Friday and be prepared to price both old and new crop grain.