Mark's Market Talk for February 9, 2026

If you had been out of communication all last week and regained it Friday afternoon, your first thought might have been, what happened to the bean market?

Of course, we now know the excitement followed a tweet from President Trump. Bean traders had been looking for something, anything, to spark this market, and the President delivered when he announced China would buy another 300 million bushels of soybeans this season, bringing their total to 20 million metric tons. A White House official later described “this season” as the month of February. As of now, however, China has yet to confirm the purchase.

I don’t doubt a deal was discussed. President Trump is a big-time deal maker. But there is almost certainly more to the story. March beans finished Wednesday and Thursday sharply higher and closed Friday up 3 cents on the day. November beans ended the week 14 cents higher, and that may be where the real story lies.

If China does take these additional beans, consider this. Basis levels in South America widened roughly 25 cents last week, putting U.S. beans nearly a dollar higher than Brazilian supplies. That would cost China about 300 million dollars more to buy U.S. beans over Brazil. While China is famously tight-fisted, 300 million is pocket change to them, especially if it comes with tariff reductions on their products in return.

Still, there is likely a ripple effect. If China shifts purchases to the U.S. and South American prices weaken further, other countries will step in to buy cheaper beans from Brazil and Argentina. Many of those buyers normally source from the U.S., meaning we might only reduce our carryout by 150 million bushels. The global carryout does not change, but we may have just encouraged more bean acres worldwide. A year from now, that could mean bigger trouble.

For those holding old-crop beans, this rally needs to be rewarded. New-crop prices also deserve close attention. Rallies like this often only last three days, and we may have already had ours.

While beans grabbed the headlines, corn remained stagnant, closing just 2 cents higher on the week. The nearby March contract may push toward 4.35, but it cannot seem to break higher. There appears to be more corn sitting in on-farm storage than expected, and short, quick-ship bids are supplying processors with all the bushels they need. Argentina will have corn available in a couple of months, and so far dry weather has not hurt their crop prospects.

The USDA will release its February stocks report on Tuesday. You hate to call any USDA report a sleeper, but this one probably will be. The bigger reports are still ahead in March.

One final thought. We hear a lot about global warming, yet temperatures dipped below 32 degrees in Cuba last week, possibly for the first time ever. The South and Southeast have seen winter storms like they have never experienced before. What is going on? Ironically, it may still be tied to global warming. Weather experts point to a mass of warm air trapped over the North Pole, allowing bitterly cold air to plunge farther south than normal. When that cold air collides with warm, moist Gulf air, you get snow, and plenty of it.

We may need moisture in our area, but a little timely spring rain will suit us just fine.