Mark's Market Talk for February 16, 2026

Another week brought more comments from President Trump that pushed the bean market higher. It appears President Trump and President Xi are planning to meet in China in April to discuss trade issues between the two countries. There may also be a follow-up meeting later this summer in the United States.

Once again, the funds jumped back into a bean futures buying spree.

However, when you step back and look at the fundamentals, it is hard to get overly optimistic. World supplies remain large, and South America is harvesting what could be a record crop. Last Tuesday’s supply and demand report left U.S. bean carryout at 350 million bushels. That number could easily grow if soybeans gain acres this spring.

Even if China does buy additional U.S. beans, global supply does not change. They were going to source beans from somewhere.

On the corn side, last week’s report trimmed carryout slightly due to stronger exports, but domestic feed usage was left unchanged. Many argue feed demand should be lowered given the smaller number of cattle on feed. The Mexico border remains closed to feeder cattle, meaning those calves are being fed in Mexico. Corn exports have increased to supply that demand, but we cannot feed the same cattle on both sides of the border.

Corn finished the week up just over a penny and remains stuck in a 10-cent trading range. There appears to be plenty of corn available. It may take a meaningful reduction in planted acres or adverse spring weather to shift the outlook.