Mark's Market Talk

We put in another strong week in the corn and bean markets as South American weather continues to lead us higher. March corn ended last week 20 cents higher while March beans were 44 cents higher. We may be wringing the last of the dry South American weather out of this market and now we need to find another spark to move us higher. Last week the rumor mill had China buying old crop corn from someone and Friday it was confirmed they did buy 9.75 million bushels form the US. This may be the start of a large amount of corn sales to them. They have rebuilt their hog herd much faster than expected and now they need corn to feed them. Most of the crop loss talk in southern Brazil and Argentina has been on the bean crop. However, the dry weather came at a critical time for their first crop corn and the current crop ratings are not very high. Our other major corn competitor is the Ukraine, and they have their hands full protecting their border with Russia. This could all lead to more corn sales for us. We currently have a comfortable carryout that supports the price range we have been in. If we suddenly see exports explode it could get interesting. December corn needs something like this to give it a spark. Local new crop stays in the 5.15 range and that may not be enough to cover all the crop needs. Meanwhile new crop beans have been in the 12.40 to 12.65 range and that is drawing some attention. It appears 13.00 would buy a lot of fall beans but for that to happen we will need to see further crop damage in South America. The reports coming out of South America can say whatever they want, but it will take real yield data to back up the talk.