Mark's Market Talk

We have turned the calendar to a new year, and we have been in the midst of a price rally in the grain markets. Last week March corn was up 12 cents while March beans were 49 cents higher. We have another 4-day trading week due to the holidays, but volume is expected to return to normal this week. There wasn’t any new market moving news last week as the Argentina weather continues to be a moving target. One day the forecast turns wet and the next it is dry again. They still have not finished their bean planting and probably won’t as they are running out of time. Their percent of good to excellent beans is very low compared to last year and some of the damage is unrepairable. On the flip side many predict a record crop coming out of Brazil and could make up for any loss to the south. Later this month China will move their buying attention to Brazilian beans as their harvest kicks off. Domestically bean basis levels have been softening as farmers sell into the recent rally. It appears more beans than normal were stored last fall and now farmers are starting to part with some. Crush margins are still very high so processors will continue to buy all they can, so the plants keep running at full speed. We started to see some corn movement last week. There had been very little corn sold since harvest ended. Now we are seeing producers coring their bins and making some small sales. We are coming into our normal corn export season as other markets start to dry up. Our exports need a shot in the arm as we have been way off this year to date. The increasing trouble in the Black Sea is holding up grain shipments from the Ukraine. They are still behind shipping their grain so this can become a positive to our corn. The traders are already trying to estimate 2023 crop acres. Right now, they think there will be more corn and bean acres. Cotton may be a loser along with hay and pasture. It will all of us something to talk about for the next 3 months.