Mark's Market Talk

A lot of times the corn market changes direction around the 4^th of July, and it sure did this year. We have bounced around more than ever this spring. We went home on July 2^nd with the thought of higher prices the following week as the forecast was hot and dry. Sometime during the weekend, it changed to cooler and wetter. We did not trade until Tuesday morning due to the holiday and corn was immediately down the 40-cent limit. It ended the day down 40 cents, so we lost the 40 we got following the June 30 report and now we have lost more as Dec corn finished last week down 66 cents. So, we can say the bears won last week and perhaps they are poised to win some more. However, it will not be over until we get closer to harvest. In order to make trend line or better yields we must have lots of good yielding corn. Last week 38 percent of the corn acres were still in moderate to severe drought. The rain may have shrunk that some, but there are some areas that are still missing all the rain. The offset is where the crops are good some are really good. We can look at this like a football game and we are at halftime and the end result will be determined in the second half. Beans also had a rough week as Nov beans were 72 cents lower. New crop prices are still above 12.50 which is a good price. We do not lose a bean crop in July as August weather determines the yield. Last year our area had a great bean crop working and then the hot and dry August cost us 5 to 10 bushels. If that happens in a wide area this year, we will bounce back to the 13 plus range real fast. On the other hand should we have great August weather things could get somewhat ugly price wise.