Mark's Market Talk

Jul 05, 2022

The only good thing to say about last weeks trade is thank goodness the week is over. We get a USDA stock and acreage report Thursday that on the corn side fell close to the estimated acres and supplies. However, bean acres came in about 1 million below the trade guess which normally would be bullish and yet everything went south. And then the downfall continued Friday as the funds continued to exit the market. At the end of the week September corn was 63 cents lower while the Dec was 66 lower. Beans fared better as the August contract fell 11 cents and the Nov closed 29 lower. Initially most people blamed the report on the collapse. I think it was other factors as the markets were trending lower Thursday morning pre report. The 7-day forecast had changed overnight and was cooler and wetter. Fund managers that were long the markets were looking at a 3-day holiday weekend and the temptation to take some profit out was too tempting. Oil broke big time Thursday while the dollar increased in value to the highest level in a long time. And there was no wildly bullish news to be found. The path of lest resistance was down and down we went. Did we go too far and too fast? Maybe, there are some positive factors to look at following last week. The 10-to-14-day forecast is now hot and dry so if we don’t get the short term rain we will go backwards. The reduction in bean acres may cut next years carryout below 150 million bushels which would be very bullish if everything stays the same. The lower corn prices should promote more export sales. Our corn has been too high compared to the world market so this setback good help us long term. Weather will dictate the markets for the next 2 months. Volatility will continue to frustrate sellers and buyers a like. Sale opportunities may be limited and will demand quick attention. It won’t work to sit on your hands, however some quiet time after last week’s fireworks would be ok.