Mark's Market Talk

If you have a desire to trade grain futures for a living it would be wise to take a look at last week’s trade. We came out of the June stocks and Acreage report on the 30^th in a downward spiral. It continued the day after the 4^th, and then last Wednesday we headed back up. It takes a lot of fortitude to play this game. By last Friday we had gained back about 60 percent of the loss we had seen since prior to the report. Weather continues to be the largest factor in the markets. A week ago, the forecast got cooler, and wetter and we saw a sell off. Coming into this week the forecasts have changed and now the prediction is hotter and drier for the next 2 weeks which takes us into prime pollination season. The July stocks report is out this Tuesday and it is expected to be a calm report with no surprises, we have heard this before. The trade doesn’t see the projected yields changing at this point so it will just be a matter of updating the acres from the June report. As we look at corn basis numbers at the interior markets it appears that farmer selling in very slow. It appears the farmer does not own a lot of corn and what is out there is in tight hands. There is a lot of time before harvest so these levels may continue to increase. Old crop bean basis has gotten a little better for July, but August bids remain at a discount. Interior crush plants are playing like they have good coverage for August and using that to secure nearby beans. They will need beans in August also as crush margins remain very good. Owners of old crop grain will just need to stay awake and watch the markets. Last week September corn was 13 cents higher while Dec was 16 higher. August beans clawed back from a bad Tuesday and ended the week 4 cents higher. The Nov contracted finished a penny higher.