Mark's Market Talk

Jul 31, 2023

You can say what you want about the grain markets, but we are not lacking for excitement. Last Monday we started the week soaring higher due to Russia destroying more Ukrainian grain facilities and the hot dry weather in our country. We expected Tuesday to be a continuation of higher prices, but we were fooled as the board took some back. And then for 3 days we waited for an upward correction, and it never came. At the end of the week December corn was down 6 cents and November beans ended the week down 19. It appears the traders are somewhat confident we will raise a large enough crop to keep our carryout bushels at a manageable level. Part of the thinking is our poor export pace will take less grain out of the country. Normally by now Brazil is out of corn and we are the dominate corn exporter for 6 months. This year their second corn crop that many had written off early in the season, is producing record yields. Plus, they make sure their corn is priced below us, so they can keep it moving out of the country. If you still have old crop grain you hate to throw in the towel on a down market, but at the same time you don’t want to hold it too long and brag you hit the low. The best advice might be to dump it as much as you can and hope your new crop is worth more. Hindsight marketing is always accurate and, in this case, last Monday may have been the day. We can argue the poor crop ratings say we can’t raise a large crop. But many are now thinking the crop ratings were understated from the beginning and we are not recognizing the strength of the new genetics. They may be correct. My neighborhood has been really short of rain this year and yet the crops still look very good. 20 years ago, with the same weather our crops would have been a disaster by now.