Mark's Market Talk for July 1, 2024

There are days when it does not pay to get out of bed and last Friday was one of those days. The USDA released their June acres and stocks report. The bears got all they wanted and more in the corn numbers. Planted acres were pegged at 91.47 million acres compared to the average trade guess of 90.353, a jump of 1.17 million acres. The corn stocks on hand June 1 were 117 million more bushels than the average estimate. This combined to send corn futures lower for the day and the losses for the week on front month corn was 37 cents. Their corn acre number was 200,000 acres higher than the highest private estimate, and the stocks number was at the top of the private estimates. The argument could be made that the private companies have more people on the ground and deal with a number of producers who probably give honest answers to their staff. But the trade will trade the USDA’s numbers until they are proven wrong. This survey was taken prior to June 1 so the terrible flooding in the upper Midwest is not factored into this. Plus, some of the respondents were still planting and their plans may have changed after the survey. If you add up the flooded ground and the late planted crops there may be a sizable number, but we will not see this show up in the pricing till closer to harvest. The bean side of the report was slightly positive as the planted acres came in at about 650,000 acres less than the average trade estimate. However, the stocks were just a touch higher. Beans were higher after the report but faded late in the session as corn drug them down. For the week, old crop beans were 10 cents lower. This week we will trade 3 days and then take a day off for the 4^th. In the old days of pit trading, you would say Friday would be a dead day as most traders would stay home. Now with electronic trading they can do it all from home or wherever. Friday’s corn market loss was not excessive for the numbers we were given. But you might think some of this has already been factored into the market and perhaps we may see a little bounce this week. The odds of a major rally occurring look to be slim right now. The 2-week forecast looks good for pollination and most areas have received amble rain. We may see additional export business due to lower prices which could eat some of our bushels. Otherwise, we will need to lower our price expectations and go into survivor mode.