Mark's Market Talk for July 15, 2024

We made it through another S&D report last Friday that was slightly bullish corn and a little negative for beans. They pushed the demand on old crop corn 150 million and new corn 100 million. Most of this was credited to increased export demand along with a little more domestic usage for feed. Bottom line that evened out the additional production from the increased corn acres they used in the late June report. They left the yield at 181 which a lot of people argue is not attainable with all the weather damaged and late planted crops. However, traders tend not to factor that in until it is proven at harvest. They live by the motto that rain makes grain. Corn closed a couple higher Friday but was down 8 cents for the week. They played with the bean numbers reducing production due to less projected acres, but they left the yield at 52 bushels. When they got to the bottom line, they lowered the projected carryout 20 million bushels to 435 which is not a bullish number at all. Plus, you must factor in that the world carryout is record large so it will take a large weather issue here to change that. Right now our weather is non-threatening through the end of July so it will take a very hot and dry August to make the bean traders exited. For the week beans were down 60 plus cents.  Friday’s commitment of trader’s report showed the funds were record short the market on both corn and beans. This looks like a positive thing, however there is still a large amount of old crop grain hanging over this market. It appears we are setting up a contest of who blinks first, the traders or the farmers.