Mark's Market Talk for July 22, 2024

We saw another week of lower prices as the weather in our major crop growing areas remains non-threatening. Corn ended the week 11 cents lower while beans were down 22 cents. The funds added to their record short positions in both corn and beans. Last Friday they were estimated to be short 343,000 corn contracts and 186,000 bean contracts. Normally these numbers would lead you to believe that a big rally should be in our future. However, with the large amount of farmer owned grain that needs priced and moved, the odds favor a small rally at best. We are running out of time for a summer corn rally. There are currently too many negatives to overcome. The potential for a record yield is a possibility even though we know lots of areas have suffered some damage. But, on the flip side is how good the crop looks in many areas which includes the central and northern part of our trade areas. Export sales have been better than expected, but we haven’t seen that sale that could signal a bottom in this market. The bean market is having similar trouble as world stocks are record large. End users have not had a good reason to get carried away buying their needs as the market continues to trend lower. Beans are made in August and they will require a finishing rain, so there is still a little hope that a dry August could cut some production. The advice for owners of old crop corn and beans remains the same, move it on out and get the bins ready for this falls harvest. At some point we have to owe up that we were wrong to hang on this long. Our focus now needs to shift to marketing new crop bushels. We could easily be in a down trending market for another year. It has happened before, we can only hope that something changes the markets course and we start digging our way back up.