Mark's Market Talk for July 8, 2024

Last week was a 4-day trade due to Independence Day. Volume was light most of the week as some traders took a couple of days off. Corn was up about 5 cents on the week while beans ended the week almost 20 higher. Most of this was a small recovery from the week before when the USDA released their stocks and acres numbers, and the market may have overreacted some. The funds have increased their short positions in both corn and beans after almost evening things up last month. It is estimated that they are short over 300,000 corn contracts and close to 120,000 bean contracts. Should the weather turn hot and dry this might be the start of a rally. Right now, the 2 week forecast is starting to turn warmer, but not bad for the Midwest. Moisture levels are good in most places as the drought has almost disappeared. Most corn will pollinate in the next 2 to 3 weeks and once that is done a couple of timely rains could top the crop off. Unfortunately, the South American corn crops are ahead of schedule and they could steal some export business from us. Normally we have the only available corn through August, but it may be different this year.