Mark's Market Talk

Last week we saw big moves both ways in the corn and bean markets. Friday the market started higher but then profit taking ahead of a 3- day weekend kicked in and both closed lower. For the week July corn was down 3 cents while Dec corn closed a penny lower. The corn market has given back enough in the last 3 to 4 weeks that we should start to see some retracement. The funds have liquidated a third of their long positions which is now supportive. Most areas are reporting good corn stands but everybody needs heat to push the crop. Corn that was off to a great early start has been slowed by cool weather which may push pollination later in July which will raise the risk of it being affected by hot and dry weather. To this point the majority of this rally has been demand led. The next 6 weeks weather will take center stage in the corn market and it can go either way. New crop bids are in the low 5.00 range which is historically a very good price. Everybody wants 6.00, just make sure you do not end up at 4 or less if everything starts to go right. Beans were a little higher at the end of last week. July beans closed 4 cents higher while the Nov was up 12 cents. The was not a lot of fresh news. Planting progress has been running ahead of normal while the cool weather has slowed emergence and early growth. Argentina is finishing their bean harvest and reports are it was just a little better than expected. In late June, the USDA will release a planting report that will show how many additional acres of crops were planted this spring. The trade is expecting increased acres, and some think it is already priced in. However, we all know these reports can surprise everyone and cause quite a stir. New crop beans in the 13.00 range may look good down the road. There would be nothing wrong with selling some here and hope every sale to come is at a higher price. This will be a holiday shortened trade week. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see some big action.