Mark's Market Talk

Jun 14, 2021

Some weeks would be better without a Monday and weeks like last week would be better without a Friday. Going into last Friday the corn market was moving higher as we were coming off a bullish WADSE report that was released on Wednesday. On the corn side the USDA lowered the beginning stocks 150 million bushels and left usage alone, so we saw a 150 million reduction in the ending stocks. Some think they should have raised the ethanol usage as it appears gasoline sales are getting close to normal. Unfortunately, on Friday there were reports the EPA was backpedaling on their promise to hold refiners to the RFS agreement. Once again it shows the power of money and how it can influence our government. Thursday night thru Friday a line of thunderstorms moved thru the Dakotas into Nebraska and western Iowa. It appears some traders thought it was bringing enough rain to raise a crop in those desert conditions out west. Friday afternoon I saw a comment from a North Dakota farmer who said the storm looked a whole lot better on radar as they only received 2 tenths of rain. However, the rain news prompted some traders to bail out and head home for the weekend. For the week July corn closed 2 cents higher while Dec corn was 18 higher.  Beans on the other hand had a poor week. The WADSE report was not so kind to the bean market. The trade was expecting the ending stock number to stay the same or drop just a little. Instead, they raised the ending stock number 15 million bushels which takes the pressure off us having enough beans to get to new crop. For the week July beans were down 75 cents while Nov beans were 3 cents higher. All eyes will be on the weather this week. Early forecasts show another week of hot and dry conditions for the northern plains and western corn-belt. The drought monitor is showing a larger area getting added the troubled area. Young plants can handle dry dirt for a while. But without some meaningful rain these high temperatures will begin to take a toll. It is hard to believe that we were dealing with record cold weather less than a month ago. The next USDA report will be released June 30 and it will contain an updated planting report. If a person had the inside track on this one it could easily make you very rich. It is probably a given that more acres were planted than was expected in March. The question is what was planted on those acres.