Mark's Market Talk

Last week we saw a 2-sided trade as corn was higher while beans were lower. July corn ended the week 11 cents higher while the Dec was a dime higher. Meanwhile July beans lost 43 cents and Nov was down 30. It appears that corn is trading on the hot and dry forecast that will take us to the start of pollination. Beans are looking the other way on weather and currently the downtrend in veg oil prices worldwide are having a similar effect on bean pricing. Crude oil ended last week lower as the US is threating to halt energy exports until we can stabilize fuel prices. Trade makes the world go around but it has always been hard to understand why we don’t utilize our energy sources here instead of exporting some and then having to import oil to make up the difference. This will be a 4-day trade week as we have a federal holiday on Monday. Most of the corn belt is looking at a hot and dry forecast and several models show that continuing for the rest of the month. Most of the corn acres got a late start but it is catching up fast so pollination will start within 3 weeks. A large percentage of the acres got planted in a narrow window so weather will play a huge role in this the first half of July. Prior to that the next USDA report will be out on June 30, and it will include planting data. It is expected to show there was less acres of corn planted than was planned. That would put even more pressure on the crop to perform. Old crop stocks are getting tight and that is showing up in the basis being offered by end users. We have seen volatile markets for almost 2 years and right now it looks like that will continue right on thru this fall.