Mark's Market Talk

Mar 08, 2021

Last week I mentioned that volatility in the grain markets will continue. This past week is a perfect example of that thought. We saw some wild swings a couple of days as the market was like a yoyo all week. However, we did end the week mostly higher. May corn was a touch weaker while Dec corn was 6 cents higher. Beans continued their climb higher with May beans gaining 29 while Nov beans were 25 cents higher. South America weather is still the market driver. Argentina remains in a hot and dry pattern and most of their production is in a zone that would be like our late July and early August. That means those areas need rain soon to finish the crop. Their new crop corn price started to soften last Friday as it now appears some crop damage is done. Meanwhile the Brazilian bean harvest is finally picking up speed and ample beans are headed to the ports for shipment to China. The quality of some of the beans is questionable as they are harvesting some wet and damaged beans. So far it has not been a large concern. We have the March WASDE report due out on Tuesday the 9th. Normally this report is a non- event.  It might be a mover this year as they will update the carryout numbers. The trade is expecting a slight reduction in both corn and bean numbers. They see beans in the 117-million-bushel range and corn around 1.47 billion bushels. If the report deviates much either way, it will be a mover. The planting intentions report will be released later this month and will draw more attention. They will start collecting that data soon. Today if a person was on the fence about what to plant, beans might have an advantage. But if we do have an early spring and farmers in the corn belt can plant corn early in good soil conditions, they will plant corn. New crop prices have improved where local corn is in the 4.35 range and beans are close to 12.00. Both are far better than we have seen for some time for new crop. If you started pricing here and it is the worst sale you make, you will be successful next year.